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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Thu 30th Nov 2023 - Update: M&B FY lfls up 9.1%, Cooks Coffee, business confidence, Gary Usher
M&B FY like-for-like sales up 9.1%: Mitchells & Butlers (M&B), the All Bar One, Toby Carvery and Harvester owner, has reported a 9.1% increase in like-for-like sales for the 53 weeks ended 30 September 2023, with growth all brands, supported by volume growth in both food and drink. Total revenue for the period was £2.503bn (FY 2022: £2.208bn), with operating profit of £98m (FY 2022 £124m), and a pre-tax loss of £13m (FY 2022 £8m). The company said that adjusted operating profit increased by 17.6% (52-weeks, net of government support), while cost headwinds were starting to abate. Like-for-like sales for the period increased by 9.1%, comprising an increase in like-for-like food sales of 8.6% and an increase in like-for-like drink sales of 9.9%. Excluding the impact of reduced rates of VAT in the first half of FY 2022, like-for-like sales growth across the period was 11.3%. Since the period end, the company said it was further encouraged by like-for-like sales growth of 7.2%. The company said: “Total sales across the period were £2.503bn with year-on-year growth driven by strong like-for-like sales performance across all of our brands. Operating profit of £98m was £26m lower than the prior year, impacted both by property portfolio valuation movements classified in separately disclosed items and the inclusion last year of an additional £52m of non-recurring government support (in the form of reduced VAT and grants). Overall, we are very pleased with our 52-week adjusted operating profit result of £221m, before separately disclosed items, which reflects a strong performance in the face of considerable cost headwinds and a record like-for-like sales outperformance against the market, as measured by the CGA Business Tracker, of 2.7ppts. We made a good start to the financial year with like-for-like sales growth of 6.5% over the first ten weeks, primarily driven by drink sales. Growth then increased further in the final five weeks of the first quarter due principally to last year being impacted by the emergence of the Omicron variant which resulted in a downturn in activity across much of the festive season. Like-for-like sales for the quarter were up 10.4% against FY 2022. Sales remained resilient through the second quarter with strong performances on key trading dates and from our drink-led, city centre pubs, especially in London, that benefitted from a further return to office working and recovery in tourism. Across the quarter, we recorded like-for-like sales growth of 6.4%, comprising drink sales growth of 9.9% and food sales growth of 5.2%. Through the second half, sales performance remained strong and our outperformance of the market extended further. Despite a wetter and cooler summer than the prior year, like-for-like sales grew by 9.7% through the second half, with all brands in like-for-like sales growth and supported by sustained growth in both food and drink volumes. The uncertainty and cost challenges the industry has faced have had an unavoidable impact on market supply with a 3.6% net decline in pubs and restaurants in the year to October 2023 and a 13.2% net decline since the start of the covid-19 pandemic in March 2020 (CGA October Hospitality Market Monitor 2023). Independent and tenanted businesses have made up the substantial majority of the net closures. Given our strong estate and portfolio of brands, we believe that we are well placed to continue to benefit from these changes in the competitive landscape.” In June, M&B completed the acquisition of the remaining 60% stake in 3Sixty Restaurants, owners of Ego Restaurants, having acquired the initial 40% stake in August 2018. It currently has 29 sites, including 16 that are leased from M&B, and circa 1,000 employees. M&B currently foresees scope for circa 20-30 conversions using the Ego format over the next three to five years. It said: “This type of acquisition, of a brand which provides a conversion opportunity which complements our brand portfolio, allows us to generate value through cost synergies of circa £3m as well as incremental profit on conversion.” The company said that cost headwinds presented a significant challenge in FY 2023 but “we are seeing clear evidence that these are starting to abate”. It said: “We now know that the National Living Wage will increase by 9.8%, and be extended to everyone over 21, from April next year, but a reduction in energy prices and slowing food inflation, in particular, mean that anticipated overall cost headwinds for the year ahead are expected to reduce to circa£65m. This should allow us to start to rebuild margins back towards pre-pandemic levels.” Phil Urban, chief executive of M&B, said: “We are delighted by the continued strength of our trading performance, and resilience in the face of unprecedented cost headwinds. We have achieved good growth in underlying profit, excluding government support, with like-for-like sales growth across all of our brands, and record outperformance against the market. Whilst we remain mindful of the pressures that the UK consumer is facing, the strength of our sales growth alongside an abating cost environment gives us confidence for the financial year ahead. We will remain focused on our strategic priorities delivered through our Ignite and capital programmes, which combined with our diverse portfolio of well-known brands, strong estate locations and talented people, leave us well positioned to rebuild margins back towards pre-pandemic levels.”

Premium subscribers to receive next New Openings Database and videos from Propel Multi-Club Conference tomorrow: Premium subscribers will receive the next The New Openings Database tomorrow (Friday, 1 December), at midday. The database features a number of openings by pub groups such as Shropshire brewer and retailer Joule’s, which has opened the Henry Tudor House pub in Shrewsbury, under the new name Henry Tudor Inn 1429. Meanwhile, Joseph Holt has acquired a new pub in Alkrington, near Rochdale, for close to £1.5m. The database will show the details of 142 site openings, including which company has opened a site or its plans to open one in the future. It will have details on what type of site it is and its location, and there will also be a website link to the businesses. The database is published on a monthly basis and Premium subscribers will also receive an 8,500-word report on the new additions to the database. Premium subscribers also receive access to five other databases: the Propel Multi-Site Database, produced in association with Virgate; the Propel Turnover & Profits Blue Book; the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database; the Who’s Who of UK Food and Beverage; and the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database. Premium subscribers will also receive all the videos from this month’s Propel Multi-Club Conference tomorrow. They will be sent 12 videos at 9am. Premium subscribers receive all the videos from Propel conferences each year – around 100 in total. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Propel Premium for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. The single subscription rate is £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com to upgrade your subscription. Premium subscribers also receive their morning newsletter 11 hours early, at 7pm the evening before; regular video content and regular exclusive columns from Mark Wingett.

Cooks Coffee – UK H1 same store sales up 22%: Cook Coffee, the Esquires-brand owner, has reported a 22% increase in same store sales across its UK estate to NZ$17.8m (£8.65m) compared to last year and by 58% compared to 2019 pre-covid trading as it said its development in suburban areas and smaller market towns rather than the larger cities gained further momentum. Profit from continuing operations for UK and Ireland stood at $800,000, up 40% on H1 FY23 of $600,000. The company said that its pipeline of store openings was “robust and underpinned by strong consumer demand”. It said it has entered into an agreement to establish a Regional Developer (RD) in the UK for the Southwest, South Wales and West Midlands. The RD will focus on store growth and build on the success of this model in the Southeast, London, East England and East Midlands regions, which has proved “very successful to date”. UK store numbers were 53 at the end of September 2023, up from 49 as of 31 March 2023. It said sales from the Esquires outlets for the six months were up 58% on the pre-covid period from April to September 2019 and up 22% on the same period in FY23. Record sales per store have been recorded in September and again, post period end, in October. The company’s average store sales for the first six months rose 16% compared to FY23 and 25% compared to FY20 as its strategy of enhancing store locations is being implemented. The business said that further discussions are underway to secure agreements for the remaining regions, and it is confident of securing suitable partners before the end of the financial year. New store locations have focused on suburban areas and market towns where the ongoing impact of the permanent post-covid changes in consumer behaviour have led to positive store performance. Earlier this autumn, the company appointed RSM UK Restructuring Advisory as liquidators to its Triple Two coffee franchise business, comprising Triple Two Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries. As a result of this action the company fully impaired the Triple Two investment of $4.8m and this has led to reporting a negative equity position for the group of $3.6m at the end of September 2023. The Esquires business is not affected by the Triple Two process however the company has fully impaired the investment in the September group accounts. Overall store numbers at the end of September 2023 were 94, a net gain of six stores during the six-month period, with the number of stores in the UK and Ireland growing to 68 and the total of 26 stores in the franchised regions outside of the UK and Ireland remaining unchanged. The company added seven outlets and closed one to the franchised network in the UK and Ireland during the period. The number of stores is expected to grow in the second half of the year, with eight store openings planned in the UK and two in Ireland which we anticipate will take the store numbers to 78 in the UK and Ireland by the end of March 2023 with the total store numbers expected to reach 105 across the system internationally. The company expects to have up to 80 Esquires outlets operating in UK & Ireland by the end of March 2024 with more than 100 operating in total internationally and is confident of the growth potential for all markets in the future. Keith Jackson, executive chairman, said: “We are delighted by the strong trading performance in the first half with store revenues up in the core markets of UK & Ireland up 18% compared to last year and overall store numbers at the end of September 2023 were 68 (not including Triple Two), a net gain of six stores (10% for the six months). The directors believe the prospects for the business for the remainder of the financial year and beyond are strong. The company is committed to building the business based on ethical principles and community values. Store sales trends have been very positive in recent times, with the company benefiting from the ‘working from home’ trend, which we are confident will remain in one form or another as a permanent change in consumer behaviour in the post-covid environment. There is a solid pipeline of new stores in both core markets of UK & Ireland that will build upon the growth for FY24 to date. As a result, the board is confident about the prospects of the business.” 

Business confidence back to levels before war in Ukraine: Falling inflation and speculation that interest rates have peaked have boosted business confidence back to levels not seen since before the onset of the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, according to research by Lloyds Bank. The Times reports that an index compiled monthly by the bank, tracking optimism among British companies, climbed by three points to a net balance of 42% this month – the highest level since February 2022, which was when Russia invaded Ukraine and fuelled inflation by causing energy prices to rise. Sentiment among businesses has been bolstered by confidence in their own trading prospects, which rose by four points month-on-month to a net balance of 48%, the highest reading since December 2017, Lloyds said. Executives are also becoming more positive about the health of the wider economy, with a gauge of economic optimism rising by three points to a net 37%. This confidence is feeding through into recruitment plans for the coming year, with a measure of hiring intentions compiled by Lloyds reaching its highest level for 18 months. The brighter picture painted by the Lloyds Bank business barometer is a contrast to the recent gloomy picture describing the British economy. Many households and businesses have come under pressure since late 2021 as they have wrestled with surging inflation and a sharp rise in interest rates, as the Bank of England tried to contain prices. Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist at Lloyds commercial banking business, said: “It’s encouraging to see signs that wage expectations may be stabilising, even against the backdrop of hiring intentions increasing to an 18-month high. Price indicators in the survey are similarly up, with our data continuing to show that firms are still safeguarding their profit margins in response to past rises in interest rates, wage increase pressures, and the prospect of higher energy prices again this winter.”

Signa crash raises fears for commercial property sector: Signa, the investment group and Selfridges shareholder, has become the biggest casualty yet of a crash in European commercial property as its last-ditch attempts to secure fresh capital failed. The Times reports that the insolvency of the heavily indebted group will heighten concerns about the health of the property industry, which is battling rising debt costs and faces pressure on valuations, linked to changing working habits. Signa’s holding company in Austria said it would apply to a court in Vienna to begin insolvency proceedings, and start a reorganisation of the group. The business, founded by René Benko, an Austrian billionaire, owns the Chrysler building in New York and retail and property projects across Europe. “The aim is the orderly continuation of business operations…and the sustainable restructuring of the company,” it said. The insolvency will raise questions about the future of Signa’s shareholding in Selfridges, the department store based in London. Signa and Central Group, the owner of Thailand’s biggest department store, bought Selfridges in 2021 in a deal worth $5bn. Central, which is owned by the billionaire Chirativat family, said this month that it had taken control of Selfridges amid Signa’s financial crisis. Research by analysts at one of Signa’s biggest lenders – Raiffeisen Bank International, based in Austria – warned this week that the $27bn group’s difficulties could trigger a wider drop in commercial property prices. The end of an era of ultra-low interest rates has coincided with the value of offices, the largest component of the market, being challenged by the move to hybrid working after the covid-19 pandemic, while weak consumer confidence has harmed retail investments. Weakness in the property market in China and America has prompted concerns about the health of the industry globally.

Chef Gary Usher in ‘use us or lose us’ plea for Wirral restaurant: Chef and restaurateur Gary Usher says his award-winning Burnt Truffle restaurant in the Wirral may have to close if it doesn’t see an increase in diners. Burnt Truffle in Heswall was Usher’s second venue, and his first opened using crowdfunding. He raised £100,000. Posting on social media site X (formerly Twitter) Usher said: “Feel daft putting something so serious in a post…Unless people start using Burnt Truffle, I will have to close it. If you’re in Heswall or Wirral in general please spread the word. I’m tired of doing videos full of doom and gloom but this is the reality. We’ve been open in Heswall nearly ten years. The kitchen has been awarded two AA Rosettes and I don’t think the food has ever been so good. We also do a simple great value menu with beef ragu rigatoni and relatable things. We’ve just had a full set of new furniture. We still love Burnt. If it’s not to be it’s not to be and we will never give up but if people don’t come it obviously doesn’t work. Appreciate this looks desperate and perhaps a bit needy but we just aren’t getting enough people in to cover the costs of being open. If you would be upset if Burnt Truffle closed please help us spread the word we are still open & bloody good at what we do. Thank you.”

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